This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some strong contests considering this is a free card and that I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They have a Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my very first seat into it a few weeks ago and I will try to receive my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at the $25k decoration, then I will probably take a couple shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There actually are no cash game locks this week for me but I went with Yana since I fully expect this fight to go all 3 rounds so that I enjoy the ground she brings to the table. I also believe she wins the battle and I believe she is going to be the fighter going for takedowns. I really don’t know how high her ceiling is but in cash games it doesn’t really matter too much since we don’t need to hit 1st place in a double-up. I’d anticipate about 10x from Yana at a choice win and I will take that day in my money games.
GPP play of this week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights often score highly as there are a lot of scrambles and all the grappling advances really add up. I anticipate this is a very fun battle, but it ought to be Smolka that’s the one going for the takedowns. I am always trying to find no less than 10x from my fighters and also at $8.3k I’d be amazed if Smolka did not get that with a win. The lowest he’s ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he’s scored 162 vs Nguyen and he has a 61-point loss to Elliott that’s more DK points than Schnell’s triumph over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP play here and if he wins I would anticipate near 100 DK points.
Underdog play of the week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a struggle that I hope to remain standing, I have quite a bit of interest in this fight. I believe it will be an action-packed struggle and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is likewise the mid-range struggle of the week, so I think that a KO from guy would have a fantastic opportunity to put them on the perfect lineup. I like it more because I’m choosing the underdog to get the knockout and that I anticipate Millender to function as greater owned fighter. I will have this struggle in more than half my lineups, but I shall most likely have at least double the possession on dos Santos over Millender. I think it’s a better GPP fight than it’s for cash games, but I believe dos Santos is in play for cash since he’s an underdog and I have him winning. I really don’t feel confident in several underdogs this week, but I’ll have a fantastic amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of the week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will require a finish at that salary and that I really don’t see that happening. If he wins a clear 30-27 decision, then he likely scores mid 70’s and at his price tag that will not win anybody a GPP. I don’t think he moves for takedowns in this matchup and I think he utilizes his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Even if he does go for takedowns then I do not see him submitting Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO out of him to pay off that salary and I am not inclined to take this risk with my cash. That’s why he is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 61-37 for +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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